The Web is Snoozing, Not dead… An Online Cycle
Chris Anderson and Michael Wolff, I love your article (The Web is dead - Wired Magazine) and the thread of commentary also. But I see the cycle of open web and proprietary platforms in a slightly different light. Wouldn’t you expect people with a corporate mindset to bring their wizardry to bear on the vast opportunities the web offers, and somewhere along the line hit pay-dirt? So now they have. But is this the last phase in this technical evolution? Is the web dead?

You know it isn’t, and as an editor of a technical magazine you’ve got to believe this is just the current state of affairs? Hey, just because it’s fashionable to move away from the wild and wooly web of five or ten years ago doesn’t mean everybody is going to jump on board. While the suits came up with a way to corner the web for profits and ongoing monthly income streams, others continue to search for creative ways to leverage the webs freedom. The long tail lives on, and of all people Chris, you should be the last person on the planet to overlook this fact.
After all, as you so eloquently note, in choosing to buy iphones and sign up for monthly app subscriptions or rent Netflix, the American consumer is trading money for time. There are a whole lot more people gaining access to the web right now, all around the globe, that will certainly bargain for
the exact opposite. They aren’t wealthy and would much prefer investing time to save money. In fact, I’m sure they continue to see the web as a fabulous opportunity to create new connections. Hell, there are still a lot of people just like that right here in the United States.
In time openness catches up with the trend towards dedicated platforms and the advantages of those walled gardens falls apart. People still do search. They sit down and seek information about what’s on their mind. They may get that information from a closed network, but they won’t know if they’ve got the best information unless they compare it with everything else that’s out there. On a dedicated network you are always limited. And although, those limitations may offer advantages by filtering out a lot of background noise, they also filter out more substantial things like the ability to make global comparisons.

Then there is economics. Material resources are always scarce and wind up in bidding wars that make them expensive. The economics of the internet is different, it’s built on a resource that is almost free and infinitely available after you get past the entry threshold of obtaining a computer and access to broadband. So the cycle naturally works against walled in gardens.
As you’ve noted, these gardens are artificial enclosures, so eventually someone offers the same material for free. As free or even just substantially cheaper platforms come available than guess what happens to iphones? I mean why pay for Microsoft Office when you can get Open Office for free? Dedicated platforms for profit, where the company’s interest are more important than the community that uses the platform is a long-run, losing proposition.
And what about apps? The deck is already stacked towards the eventual replacement of expensive apps with free apps simply because so many apps are close to useless
For example, I was at a party a few months ago when my friend’s phone farted. You can’t believe that a rude app is going to get a laugh more than once. That particular app may, however, serve as a great metaphor for many other apps now out there.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t deny that proprietary networks are currently gaining traction. I’m certain, however, what’s really going on here is that while the US works at monetizing the web with proprietary networks at the head of the curve, the long tail behind that head is globalizing. And, as others find uses and methods further down the tail, the US could be left holding a bunch of barking and oinking phones. Or maybe I’m overstating things. Yeah, we’re probably not going to be left behind, instead I’d wager on the re-emergence of web creativity and tinkering right here. So that means another iteration of the open-closed cycle is just around the corner.
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